Will this hasten the end of the war? Let's examine the main scenarios and facts.

How Long Will the War Last: Analysts' Forecasts

The conflict has finally transitioned into a protracted war of attrition, where not only the situation on the battlefield but also the economic resilience of the parties plays a key role.

Realistic Scenario (2027 and Beyond):

Most military analysts, international institutions (such as GLOBSEC), and opinion polls agree that hostilities will continue into 2026 and 2027.

Neither side currently has a decisive advantage to deliver a final strategic strike.

Ukraine and the West's position:

The war will end when the cost of waging it becomes unbearable for the Kremlin due to the depletion of Soviet-era equipment, budget deficits, and critical logistical problems.

Russia's position:

Vladimir Putin is publicly demonstrating his readiness to fight for years, counting on the fatigue of Ukraine's Western allies and the slow advance of his troops in Donbas.

"Oil Front": How Drone Strikes Are Affecting Russia

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and oil depots have become a strategic game-changer.

By the summer of 2026, dozens of major facilities, from Yaroslavl to the Krasnodar Territory, as well as the Moscow Oil Refinery, had come under attack.

As a result, a significant portion of the country's oil refining capacity was disabled.

Attacks on oil infrastructure have two key objectives:

Fuel shortages for the army.

The logistics of supplying diesel fuel and gasoline for tanks, trucks, and aircraft at the front are disrupted.

Economic disruption.

The Kremlin is losing billions of dollars in export revenue, which directly finances the military budget.

A severe crisis in the oil product market has already begun in Russia.

Gas prices are rising, gasoline rationing is being introduced in some regions and occupied Crimea, and the Russian government is being forced to consider a complete ban on diesel fuel exports.

The chain of consequences is as follows:

Attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on oil refineries - fuel shortages in Russia - rising prices and export restrictions - a blow to the war budget.

Will bombing refineries hasten the end of the war?

Yes, but it won't be a "magic wand."

Drones alone won't stop a war in a week or a month, but they significantly hasten its end for several reasons.

Cumulative effect.

Strikes on oil refineries act as an economic noose.

The equipment at Russian refineries is predominantly Western-made, and due to sanctions, its repair takes months, sometimes even years.

With each strike, the damage accumulates.

Air defense redirection.

To protect refineries deep in the rear, Russia is forced to remove scarce air defense systems from the front, exposing its troop positions.

Internal pressure.

Gas station queues and fuel shortages within Russia are having a greater impact on regime stability than many international sanctions.

Results

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's oil infrastructure are one of the most effective tools of asymmetric warfare.

They contribute to the depletion of Russia's military and economic potential, limiting its ability to supply the army with fuel and creating additional pressure on the budget.

However, such strikes alone do not determine the end of the war. The duration of the conflict will depend on a combination of factors, including the military situation on the front lines, the extent of international support for Ukraine, the ability of both sides to replenish losses, and political decisions.